Monthly Archives: May 2014

The Odds On the Referendum Outcome

What is the best way to forecast the outcome of the independence referendum ? This is an important issue for individuals, organisations and businesses planning the future. In this paper I calculate a new way of forecasting the referendum outcome. It uses  “prediction markets” rather … Continue reading

Posted in Debates, Risk, Things no-one thought about before

Scottish Independence: Analysing Views From the Oil & Gas and Finance Sectors.

David Bell & Michael McGoldrick University of Stirling Two of the most important sectors in the Scottish economy are finance and oil & gas. These are highly productive and dynamic elements of the Scottish economy. They are also quite large: … Continue reading

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Attitudes and Voting Intentions

People’s perceptions and attitudes determine electoral outcomes. In this report we examined attitudes and beliefs about the Referendum options. Yougov administered a survey designed by the authors to a representative sample of 2037 people in December 2013. Our findings confirm … Continue reading

Posted in Population, Risk, Things no-one thought about before, Uncategorized

Creating a border effect

My blog on The border effect and Scottish independence(*) was published last week at the LSE Politics site. The exercise that this post was based on, is the comparison of the apparent border frictions between Scotland and the rest of the … Continue reading

Posted in Business, Trade