Monthly Archives: August 2014

Bookies odd shorten on Yes vote

Last night’s debate has altered bookies’ expectations of the referendum. There was a slight shortening of the odds on a Yes vote (see the extreme right of Figure 1). These data are taken up to lunchtime on the 26th August. Figure 1: Implied … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized

Fiscal Update

For those of you who may have dropped in from Mars and who have not had the opportunity to acquaint yourself with the intricacies of Scotland’s taxation and spending, here is a potted version for the uninitiated. In 2012-13, the … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized

The Carbon Bubble & North Sea Oil

In March this year, the Left Foot Forward blog claimed that “The fall-out from the carbon bubble bursting could devastate Scotland”. The issue has also been mentioned by Partick Harvie MSP of the Scottish Greens, and raised in a SPICe … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized

The Referendum: Latest Odds

The bookies odds have been gradually moving in favour of a ‘No’ vote. I explained how these odds are calculated here. My latest estimates, which are described in this post, reflect the odds taken up to 12 noon on 6th … Continue reading

Posted in Debates, Referendum odds