Bookies odd shorten on Yes vote

Last night’s debate has altered bookies’ expectations of the referendum. There was a slight shortening of the odds on a Yes vote (see the extreme right of Figure 1). These data are taken up to lunchtime on the 26th August.

Figure 1: Implied Probability of a No vote from Bookies’ Odds May-August 2014.



The probability of a No vote is still above 0.83. Future posts will examine whether the increased chance of a Yes vote gathers momentum in the last few weeks before the referendum.

About David Bell

David Bell FRSE is Professor of Economics at the University of Stirling. He graduated in economics and statistics at the University of Aberdeen and in econometrics at the London School of Economics. He has worked at the Universities of St Andrews, Strathclyde, Warwick and Glasgow. His research is mainly in labour economics, fiscal decentralization and the economics of long-term care. He has been budget adviser to the Scottish Parliament Finance Committee. He is PI for the Healthy AGing In Scotland project (HAGIS).
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