Last night’s debate has altered bookies’ expectations of the referendum. There was a slight shortening of the odds on a Yes vote (see the extreme right of Figure 1). These data are taken up to lunchtime on the 26th August.
Figure 1: Implied Probability of a No vote from Bookies’ Odds May-August 2014.
The probability of a No vote is still above 0.83. Future posts will examine whether the increased chance of a Yes vote gathers momentum in the last few weeks before the referendum.