Monthly Archives: September 2014

Scotland’s Fiscal Future

The referendum on Scottish independence indicated that a majority of the Scottish people wish to remain within the UK. They have been given commitments that additional fiscal powers will be granted to the Scottish Parliament in the near future. In … Continue reading

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Bookies 1 Opinion Polls 0

The referendum campaign lasted more than 2 years. Over that time, more than 100 opinion polls addressed the question “should Scotland be an independent country”. Many thousands of pounds have been spent on collecting the data and analysing the results. … Continue reading

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Final polling and betting data

The implied probability of a No vote based on bookmakers odds up to 7pm on the 17th of September and the opinion poll probabilities of a No outcome (eliminating the don’t knows) are shown in Figure 1 below. The odds … Continue reading

Posted in Referendum odds, Risk

Last labour market data for Scotland before the referendum

Today (Wednesday), the Office for National Statistics posted the final set of labour market data for Scotland that will be released before the referendum. So how is Scotland faring? Scotland’s unemployment rate for the period May-Jul 2014 was 6 per cent. This was … Continue reading

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Eyes on Thursday night’s results

Normally when watching election results come in, there are a few well known “bell-weather” results from which the overall result can be gauged. For the Independence Referendum though, what do we look for as the early results are announced (council by … Continue reading

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A conversation, between economists, on the economics of independence

Surely there are solid arguments for negative effects from being a small country relative to being a large country? Economies of scale, the existence of border effects, liquidity premia, and so on? Yes. Economic theory has proposed many plausible mechanisms … Continue reading

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Why are the opinion polls and the bookies odds so different?

The latest odds (Sunday 14th September) show that the implied probability of a No vote, based on the odds offered by 24 bookmakers up to midday on Sep 14th have stabilised at around 0.8. To find out how I calculate these odds, … Continue reading

Posted in Referendum odds, Risk

Latest Odds: Increased Chance of No Vote

The betting odds have changed once more.  They fell substantially from the 24th of August to the 9th of September. The implied probability of a No vote fell from 0.85 to 0.68. But between the 9th and the 12th of Sptember, … Continue reading

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Poll panic

As the polls tighten, there is some market reaction. The BBC reports that “The value of the pound has fallen … by about 1.3% against the US dollar to a 10-month low of $1.61. Shares in some firms with Scottish links … Continue reading

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Latest Odds

The latest odds show that bookmakers are responding to the opinion polls by shortening the odds on a Yes outcome and lengthening the odds on a No vote. Their implied assessment of the probability of a No (Yes) outcome has therefore been plumetting (rising … Continue reading

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