Latest Odds: Increased Chance of No Vote

The betting odds have changed once more.  They fell substantially from the 24th of August to the 9th of September. The implied probability of a No vote fell from 0.85 to 0.68. But between the 9th and the 12th of Sptember, there has been a substantial rebound, increasing to 0.79 at midday on the 12th of September.



The odds change in the light of new information. The decline in late August and early September perhaps reflects Mr Salmond’s success in the second televised debate which, in turn, led to a considerable narrowing of the margin between Yes and No in the opinion polls.

However, a concerted effort by the Labour Party, including Mr Brown, followed by the visit of all three main party leaders to Scotland may have reversed the upward momentum of the Yes campaign. Further, statements made by the banks and various prominant business leaders may also have pushed up the probability of a No outcome in the eyes of punters.

Clearly, this recent pattern shows that the odds are hugely volatile.  Further reversals are quite possible. I will continue to monitor their progress.

About David Bell

David Bell FRSE is Professor of Economics at the University of Stirling. He graduated in economics and statistics at the University of Aberdeen and in econometrics at the London School of Economics. He has worked at the Universities of St Andrews, Strathclyde, Warwick and Glasgow. His research is mainly in labour economics, fiscal decentralization and the economics of long-term care. He has been budget adviser to the Scottish Parliament Finance Committee. He is PI for the Healthy AGing In Scotland project (HAGIS).
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