Category Archives: Debates

The Referendum: Latest Odds

Posted on August 6, 2014 by

The bookies odds have been gradually moving in favour of a ‘No’ vote. I explained how these odds are calculated here. My latest estimates, which are described in this post, reflect the odds taken up to 12 noon on 6th … Continue reading →

Posted in Debates, Referendum odds

The Odds On the Referendum Outcome

Posted on May 27, 2014 by

What is the best way to forecast the outcome of the independence referendum ? This is an important issue for individuals, organisations and businesses planning the future. In this paper I calculate a new way of forecasting the referendum outcome. It uses  “prediction markets” rather … Continue reading →

Posted in Debates, Risk, Things no-one thought about before

International Conference on the Economics of Constitutional Change

Posted on October 7, 2013 by

The International Conference on the Economics of Constitutional Change, held in Edinburgh on the 19th and 20th of September 2013, brought together leading academics and policy makers to review the Scottish independence debate within the context of wider international experiences. … Continue reading →

Posted in Currency, Debates, Debt, Energy, Migration, Monetary Policy, Population, Risk

Business Attitudes to the Independence Debate

Posted on June 26, 2013 by

The business community has been relatively quiet during the independence debate. Just like the public, businesses have differing views about the case for Scottish independence. Some argue that independence will be transformational, leading to a revival of entrepreneurship and the … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Debates

Scotland’s currency options: a ‘hard’ currency? (speech)

Posted on June 5, 2013 by

Dr Angus Armstrong, NIESR and ESRC Fellow[1] SCOTLAND’S CURRENCY OPTIONS: A ‘HARD’ CURRENCY? “In a world of sovereign states, nothing can be regarded as truly irreversible”[2]  Professor Benjamin Cohen Introduction Good morning ladies and gentlemen. It is a great pleasure … Continue reading →

Posted in Currency, Debates, Debt, Monetary Policy, Risk

Irish Land Annuities and Debt Default

Posted on May 29, 2013 by

Between 1870 and 1909, the British Government passed a number of Land Acts aimed at improving the lot of Irish tenant farmers. These included loans for tenants to purchase land which were funded by the Irish Land Commission, set up in … Continue reading →

Posted in Debates, Debt | 1 Comment

Debate – Scotland reneges on its share of the UK national debt

Posted on May 23, 2013 by

One possible independence bargaining strategy: Scotland refuses to take on any of UK national debt unless rUK accepts Scotland within the sterling area. Is this credible? What would be the no-agreement outcome for both parties? Views? Reactions?

Posted in Currency, Debates, Debt