Category Archives: Risk

Final polling and betting data

The implied probability of a No vote based on bookmakers odds up to 7pm on the 17th of September and the opinion poll probabilities of a No outcome (eliminating the don’t knows) are shown in Figure 1 below. The odds … Continue reading

Posted in Referendum odds, Risk

Why are the opinion polls and the bookies odds so different?

The latest odds (Sunday 14th September) show that the implied probability of a No vote, based on the odds offered by 24 bookmakers up to midday on Sep 14th have stabilised at around 0.8. To find out how I calculate these odds, … Continue reading

Posted in Referendum odds, Risk

The Odds On the Referendum Outcome

What is the best way to forecast the outcome of the independence referendum ? This is an important issue for individuals, organisations and businesses planning the future. In this paper I calculate a new way of forecasting the referendum outcome. It uses  “prediction markets” rather … Continue reading

Posted in Debates, Risk, Things no-one thought about before

Attitudes and Voting Intentions

People’s perceptions and attitudes determine electoral outcomes. In this report we examined attitudes and beliefs about the Referendum options. Yougov administered a survey designed by the authors to a representative sample of 2037 people in December 2013. Our findings confirm … Continue reading

Posted in Population, Risk, Things no-one thought about before, Uncategorized

International Conference on the Economics of Constitutional Change

The International Conference on the Economics of Constitutional Change, held in Edinburgh on the 19th and 20th of September 2013, brought together leading academics and policy makers to review the Scottish independence debate within the context of wider international experiences. … Continue reading

Posted in Currency, Debates, Debt, Energy, Migration, Monetary Policy, Population, Risk

Scotland’s currency options: a ‘hard’ currency? (speech)

Dr Angus Armstrong, NIESR and ESRC Fellow[1] SCOTLAND’S CURRENCY OPTIONS: A ‘HARD’ CURRENCY? “In a world of sovereign states, nothing can be regarded as truly irreversible”[2]  Professor Benjamin Cohen Introduction Good morning ladies and gentlemen. It is a great pleasure … Continue reading

Posted in Currency, Debates, Debt, Monetary Policy, Risk

Scotland’s currency options: a currency union? (speech)

by Angus Armstrong This is an abridged version of a speech given at an ESRC conference in Edinburgh ‘The Future of the UK and Scotland’ on 2nd May 2013. The full speech is available here. “International monetary regimes have been … Continue reading

Posted in Currency, Debt, Monetary Policy, Risk