Category Archives: Uncategorized

Area-based policies and devolved government

This blog links to a paper, “Area-based policies and devolved governments”which discusses possible post-Brexit futures for policies that, under current EU rules, are linked to specific locations within the UK and are largely administered by the devolved governments.

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More on the Bookies Odds of BREXIT

My estimates of the implied probability of a “leave” outcome in the EU referendum using the bookies odds from Oddschecker.com have attracted much comment. Some critics seem to have a weak understanding of the nature of prediction markets. For example, … Continue reading

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Who will be affected by Scotland’s new welfare powers?

As a result of the Scotland Act 2016, the Scottish Government will take over a range of disability benefits and the regulated social fund. Together these benefits cost around £2.5 billion in 2013-14. Total spending on benefits, tax credits and … Continue reading

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The higher rate threshold: to increase or not to increase?

In last week’s budget, the Chancellor announced his intention to increase the personal allowance for income tax from £11,000 in 2016-17 to £11,500 in 2017-18. He also intends to increase the higher rate threshold from £43,000 in 2016-17 to £45,000 … Continue reading

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Scottish Labour’s tax proposals: distributional consequences

In the first of a series of analyses of the Scottish parties’ manifesto proposals from the University of Stirling and Centre on Constitutional Change, David Bell and David Eiser consider the Labour proposals for income tax announced earlier this week. … Continue reading

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Prospects for Growth in Scottish GDP

The latest GDP figures were released today. They show the Scottish economy grew by 0.1% in 2015 Q3. This is a fairly weak performance. The UK economy as a whole grew by 0.4% in the same quarter; it grew by … Continue reading

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Scotland’s Labour Market Lags Behind the UK’s

It is relatively easy to slip into the belief that the Scottish labour market has performed as well as the rest of the UK since the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008. Scotland’s unemployment rate, like that in the … Continue reading

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Scotland’s Labour Market Lags Behind the UK’s

It is relatively easy to slip into the belief that the Scottish labour market has performed as well as the rest of the UK since the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008. Scotland’s unemployment rate, like that in the … Continue reading

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BUDGET 2015: A Scottish alternative to austerity?

We knew a lot of the context before John Swinney stood up to deliver his Draft Budget on Wednesday. The Scottish Government’s grant from Westminster for day-to-day spending would be 1 per cent smaller in 2016/17 as it was 2015/16. … Continue reading

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Spending Review: quick summary

In headline terms, the Spending Review looks little different from the public finance forecasts in the summer budget.  The Government will achieve a fiscal surplus by the end of this parliament (the first time that this has been achieved since … Continue reading

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